Korea - the way I see it...

...a few minutes ago, South Korea announced that military exercises on Yeonpyeong Island are to begin within hours...

The islands in the Yellow Sea which are dotted along the
disputed North-South divide have been the
site of inter-Korean strife in the past.
Picture by: JOE BRISCOE

Let's take this time to briefly assess the situation.

But first - those crazy guys in the North...

At this years Shanghai World Expo, I was fortunate enough to have the opportunity to look around the North Korean pavillion - the first time the secretive state has been present at an Expo. What I found inside was interesting, a little creepy and incredibly bizarre.

The walls were painted in rainbows, and pretend rivers had been constructed - over which ran the 'bridge of reunification'.

Images of smiling children could be seen in every corner of the odd building, along with multicoloured water fountains. Infact the entire pavillion reminded me of something out of a slightly sinister, Asian production of The Wizard of Oz.

What I did manage to find, however, was a fascinating array of books on sale - all of them propaganda of the most ludicrous kind - which I bought nonetheless. These publications offered a truly warped insight into the type of mentality the people of the North are exposed to. I have included a selection of quotes from the publication: Kim Jong Il: Day of having Korea Reunified.

"Kim Jong Il thinks it would not be strange if the ceasefire is switched to a state of war at any moment, so long as US soldiers armed with nuclear weapons stay in south Korea, violating the armistice agreement and refusing the conclusion of a peace treaty. He views coolly the stark reality in which about 2 million heavily-armed soldiers, including US troops equipped with nuclear weapons, stand face to face. It is unprecedented in history that a ceasefire agreement has been in effect for so long.

"If a second Korean war breaks out, what kind of military action might north Korea take irrespective of it's reasons? [edit]


The capital city Seoul itself is within
range of Kim Jong Il's artillery.
Picture by: JOE BRISCOE



North Korea does not conceive of the fighting lasting for even several years or several months. It's first concern it not the southward advance of it's armoured units. It aims to destroy south Korea within two or three days through a concentrated fire of long-range guns, rockets and ballistic missiles, followed by air bombing. Then, it's special forces and armoured troops will push ahead, it's ground forces occupying south Korea within a week and realising north-south reunification. [edit]

Presumed scenario: Stage 1: b)

Almost all areas of south Korea are destroyed on the first day of the attack by hundreds, nay, thousands of ballistic missiles raining down."

While all this is clearly posturing and rhetoric aimed at their own people, it does show very clearly how North Korea wishes to be perceived by the rest of the world - as someone to be feared.



Military tensions are at fever pitch in the Yellow Sea -
 a busy shipping lane, used by both Korea and China.
Picture by: JOE BRISCOE



Countries in the region are scared, and the very recent developments may prove to be very good reason for such worry. With Russia 'concerned' by the exercises, an emergency UN meeting called, and China seemingly less willing to support their neighbours - it seems anything can happen.

South Korea has, over the past few weeks, been making itself ready for this. The resignations of both chiefs of the army and the navy hint at great changes in their attitude to the North. Infact even the people of the South have critiscised the way President Lee Myung-bak handled the previous incidents of the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong - leading to alterations in their rules of engagement, enabling more deadly counter-strikes in the event of North aggression.

The North has pledged to attack, should the South go ahead with their military exercises. The South has pledged to striked back with more force, should the North attack, and so, at this point, it is hard to see a diplomatic solution emerging.



Bombs, it seems, will fall. Unless China and Russia intervene exceptionally quickly, the escalation looks to continue. And it could all turn very ugly, very soon.

The next few hours will be interesting indeed...



Disputed waters of the Yellow Sea:
Is this the calm before an almighty storm?
Picture by: JOE BRISCOE



On the brink: China - the peacemaker?

It is becoming increasingly difficult to tell on which side of the DMZ China stands this time around.

In just a few hours, the American aircraft carrier the USS George Washington and its battle group is due to arrive in the Yellow Sea for four days of military exercises, and the North Korean news agency has threatened that if the ship arrives, "no-one can predict the ensuing consequences."

Kim Jong-il and Hu Jin-tao - leaders of North Korea and China

 

Days ago, China was urged to intervene to put North Korea and Kim Jong-il in their place, but top US military commander, Adm Mike Mullen, doubted Beijing's ability to do so. In an interview due to be broadcast later today, he says of the North Korean leader:"I'm not sure he is controllable."

This is not a notion that will have crossed most governments minds. It has always been assumed that North Korea would do virtually whatever the Chinese government 'suggested' - especially as China is really Kim Jong-il's only credible ally, and the source of the great majority of the North's trade.

Whether the disturbing lack of intervention on the part of the Chinese government in recent days is down to their unwillingness to get involved, or whether, as Mullen suggests, the North simply wouldn't listen anyway is open for debate.

It has been said that the North's attack on Yeonpyeong last week was an embarassment for China - as it highlighted how little influence it actually had over it's small but constantly agitated ally.

But China is the great puppet-master of Asia - holding the strings of countless neighbouring states, and more than able to crush the North Korean leadership, should it choose to.

Kim Jong-il is often portrayed as craving the worlds attention

 

However, the history of these two countries are somewhat entwined; lets not for a second forget how North Korea came to be.

It was China afterall, who in 1953 pushed UN forces back down to the 38th parallel, allowing Kim Il-sung's bizarre pocket of lunacy to take root in the years following the Korean War.
It was therefore, China who allowed this most troublesome of dictatorships to exist in the first place.

Image from the Chinese propaganda film 'The 38th Parallel'

While America and the UN have attempted to keep the North in line, with even weapons inspectors themselves becoming famous in the process, it was always assumed that if China had the will to, North Korea could be adequately controlled by them. There is now cause for the world to reconsider, and the next few days will certainly reveal a lot about the relationship between these two, untrustworthy and, to be honest, unpleasant states. 

                    Propaganda from the Korean War 1950 – 1953's armistice

Maj Gen You Nak-jun, the head of South Korea's marine corps, recently said: "We'll certainly repay North Korea a thousand-fold for killing and harming our marines.
"South Korean active-duty marines and all reserve forces will engrave this anger and hostility in our bones and we will make sure we take revenge on North Korea."

And who can blame them.
There will be further fighting between the two Koreas, possibly on a scale not seen since the last Korean war.

The only surprise will be on which side of the DMZ - the world's most heavily fortified area of land - the Peoples Republic of China allies itself.
And whichever side it is will reveal more about China and the way it wishes to be perceived by the world, than we've ever been able to see before...

Time to put your cards on the table, China.

On the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11850821