North Korea - a ticking bomb and an unwitting cupid?

 "North Korea has already collapsed economically and following the death of Kim Jong-il, will collapse politically in two to three years." 

                                             -  S. Korean Vice Foreign Minister Chun Yung-woo

While tensions on the Korean peninsula continue to boil, the documents recently released by Wikileaks show how three of the key players in the crisis; the US, China and South Korea appear for once, to be on very much the same page.

  

As I speculated on Saturday, China was yesterday revealed to be growing tired of the behaviour of North Korea - a Chinese foreign ministry official even having described it as a "spoiled child" in 2009. 

 In a shocking change of position then, it now appears that China may not only accept the reunification of Korea under Seoul, but would actually welcome it.

Former South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Chun Yung-woo is reported to have said that

"in the event of a North Korean collapse, China would clearly 'not welcome' any US military presence north of the DMZ [however] the PRC would be comfortable with a reunified Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the United States in a 'benign alliance' - as long as Korea was not hostile towards China."

News organisations around the world are reporting the contents of the 'US embassy cables' - focussing on the revelatory comments concerning China's changing attitude to North Korea - however none have picked up on how this is going to look to the people of China who have for years been told how 'close' they are politically to NK. This sudden change in attitude will seem incredibly strange to them.

Though international media didn't pick up on them, there have been signs of this massive shift of favour in Beijing, the most interesting of which is both humerous and curiously ironic;

Over the past few days, a video of North Korean anchorwoman Ri Chun Hee has been circulated amongst Chinese internet users which subsequently became the source of much mockery.

Ri Chun Hee, mouthpiece of Korean state propaganda speaks the news dreamt up by the government on air with such power and conviction that it is hard not to laugh at her animated and over-the-top acting.

The joke is that her voice is so frightening that it can scare North Korea’s enemies.

One video even features a recreation of a North Korean news bulletin with a Chinese man dressed up in traditional female Korean dress and impersonating Ri Chun Hee.

http://www.chinasmack.com/2010/stories/north-korean-anchorwoman-ri-chun-hee-becomes-famous.html

While the irony of this may be lost on the Chinese (themselves exposed to their own slightly more subtle versions of Ri Chun Hee), the startling fact is that the newsreader of a 'communist' government news channel is being mocked for the rediculous characterisation of faux-nationalism - by the Chinese.

So although the government will have to work hard to convince it's people that North Korea is no longer a 'brother' of the Chinese motherland (a change which it is quite capable of pulling off, likely asserting that the countries were never that close to begin with), it appears that by allowing critiscism and mockery of NK in recent weeks, the groundwork for such a swing has already been laid. 

As conditions in North Korea worsen, tensions continue to rise and Kim Jong-il's future grows shorter - it seems the unofficial opinion of the Chinese government is, for once, one of clear rational thought - something unusually mature for them, and no doubt something that will heighten the way governments around the world perceive them.

As the eternal China-doubter, I personally don't expect such progressive notions to be expressed by the Chinese government officially for a very long time, and I would think China's resolve on this matter is unlikely to be particularly strong. Bejing has remained unwilling to become involved in military affairs which concern other countries, for fear of endangering their own disgusting positions on Tibet, Taiwan and Xinjiang - and their ongoing trade with Burma and countless dubious African countries makes it clear in how much regard they hold morals and values.

While China seems to have seen sense on this particular issue, they remain a country just as much at fault as North Korea, and hardly a country in whom 'The West' can place any degree of trust. For proof, look no further than the RFA website, which in only the past twelve hours has publicised three examples of injustices in China; Qin Yongmin, Bai Dongping and Namsa Wangden.

It seems from the recently released documents that North Korea is, through it's own decline playing cupid in the relationship between China and the US - both super powers finally finding an issue on which they may be able to agree.

But the world should be very wary about reading too much into the information exposed by Wikileaks, as while it may offer a hint as to the future of the Korean situation, the Chinese government remains an organisation which was conveived in pain and continues to exist solely through large scale deceit...

 

Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China and

President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea

On the brink: China - the peacemaker?

It is becoming increasingly difficult to tell on which side of the DMZ China stands this time around.

In just a few hours, the American aircraft carrier the USS George Washington and its battle group is due to arrive in the Yellow Sea for four days of military exercises, and the North Korean news agency has threatened that if the ship arrives, "no-one can predict the ensuing consequences."

Kim Jong-il and Hu Jin-tao - leaders of North Korea and China

 

Days ago, China was urged to intervene to put North Korea and Kim Jong-il in their place, but top US military commander, Adm Mike Mullen, doubted Beijing's ability to do so. In an interview due to be broadcast later today, he says of the North Korean leader:"I'm not sure he is controllable."

This is not a notion that will have crossed most governments minds. It has always been assumed that North Korea would do virtually whatever the Chinese government 'suggested' - especially as China is really Kim Jong-il's only credible ally, and the source of the great majority of the North's trade.

Whether the disturbing lack of intervention on the part of the Chinese government in recent days is down to their unwillingness to get involved, or whether, as Mullen suggests, the North simply wouldn't listen anyway is open for debate.

It has been said that the North's attack on Yeonpyeong last week was an embarassment for China - as it highlighted how little influence it actually had over it's small but constantly agitated ally.

But China is the great puppet-master of Asia - holding the strings of countless neighbouring states, and more than able to crush the North Korean leadership, should it choose to.

Kim Jong-il is often portrayed as craving the worlds attention

 

However, the history of these two countries are somewhat entwined; lets not for a second forget how North Korea came to be.

It was China afterall, who in 1953 pushed UN forces back down to the 38th parallel, allowing Kim Il-sung's bizarre pocket of lunacy to take root in the years following the Korean War.
It was therefore, China who allowed this most troublesome of dictatorships to exist in the first place.

Image from the Chinese propaganda film 'The 38th Parallel'

While America and the UN have attempted to keep the North in line, with even weapons inspectors themselves becoming famous in the process, it was always assumed that if China had the will to, North Korea could be adequately controlled by them. There is now cause for the world to reconsider, and the next few days will certainly reveal a lot about the relationship between these two, untrustworthy and, to be honest, unpleasant states. 

                    Propaganda from the Korean War 1950 – 1953's armistice

Maj Gen You Nak-jun, the head of South Korea's marine corps, recently said: "We'll certainly repay North Korea a thousand-fold for killing and harming our marines.
"South Korean active-duty marines and all reserve forces will engrave this anger and hostility in our bones and we will make sure we take revenge on North Korea."

And who can blame them.
There will be further fighting between the two Koreas, possibly on a scale not seen since the last Korean war.

The only surprise will be on which side of the DMZ - the world's most heavily fortified area of land - the Peoples Republic of China allies itself.
And whichever side it is will reveal more about China and the way it wishes to be perceived by the world, than we've ever been able to see before...

Time to put your cards on the table, China.

On the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11850821

The slow death of Taiwan...

The slippery slope...

 

It seems the people of Taiwan - as with most countries - favour economic prosperity over values and dignity.

The Kuomintang, Chinas new best friend, have done rather well in the local elections, seemingly gaining the approval of its people.

 

And while new deals with China which are to be announced soon may build Taiwan's dodgy economy back up, they are risking an awful lot for it.

 

Beijing will be watching closely on it's haunches, holding it's position... waiting to pounce...

 

On the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11854553

A tale of two countries... and a bullet to the face

"Taiwan is a democracy," President Ma Ying-jeou said after visiting Mr Lien at a Taipei hospital. "We will not tolerate such violence."

For those who don't know, there are actually two Chinas in the world.

FOURTEEN nations share a land border with the first and most influential.
The People's Republic of China supplies arms to Darfur, labels nobel peace prize winner the Dalai Lama as a terrorist, holds the power of veto in the UN and executes as many as 10,000 people a year.

It has a population of 1.3 billion people, enforces mandatory abortions and maintains a stranglehold over all media. It is also boasts the worlds most staggeringly successful economy.

Further away from the spotlight is the Republic of China; comprising of the island of Taiwan.

The ROC is ranked high in terms of freedom of the press, health care, public education and economic freedom, but fell into a recession in 2001 and has been fighting hard to keep it's head above water ever since.

The youngest and loudest of the two Chinese governments - formally established in 1949 by Mao Zedong - is officially a communist party, though few would agree that this was actually the case in practice.

On the other hand, the ROC - the oldest of the two Chinas - dates back to 1912, and is a functioning democracy - albeit one with ongoing corruption issues.

Taiwan is about to hold local elections, the outcome of which will be used to judge the publics opinion on the recent strengthening of ties between the two Chinas - a controversial policy being relentlessly pushed by current President Ma Ying-jeou.

Earlier today, Lien Cheng-wen, son of Taiwan's former Vice President Lien Chan was shot in the face while campaigning for the elections. The bullet struck the left side of Mr Lien's face and exited from his right temple, miraculously leaving him in what medical officials described as a 'stable condition'.

A man carrying a gun and bullets was arrested, but it is unknown what his reasons for doing this were.
"Taiwan is a democracy," President Ma Ying-jeou said after visiting Mr Lien at a Taipei hospital. "We will not tolerate such violence."

It is not such a stretch to assume that the Taiwan governments stance toward their snarling export-driven cousin is responsible for much of the current anger on the island, and possibly even for todays shooting. But as President Ma rightly says, violent outbursts of that kind do not belong in a country which can - for the time being - claim moral superiority over their new 'friend'.

                                         Former Vice President of Taiwan Lien Chan (left)
                                         with Chinese President Hu Jintao

Taiwan and China recently signed a historic trade pact - seen as the most significant agreement since the two sides split at the end of China's civil war in 1949. A deal was also struck in 2008 to allow flights between the two Chinas - the most direct transport connections in 60 years.

Mr Ma's predecessor, the Democratic Progressive Party's Chen Shui-bian, severely strained relations with China by making moves towards formal independence, something which resulted in the PRC drawing up the Anti-Secession Law in 2005 - which stated that they would use "non-peaceful and other necessary means" to reclaim the 'lost province' should it ever actually declare formal independence.

Aside from the current government in Taipei doing what it believes is right for the future of the country, clearly not everyone there wishes to snuggle up with their brothers just 100 miles across the water, especially as Beijing recently increased the number of missiles it keeps trained on the island to 1,500.

India this week added an extra 36,000 soldiers to be stationed along its border with China, and countries which are linked geographically with the super power are becoming increasingly wary of their intimidating neighbour. Its not difficult to imagine Pakistan, Vietnam and Russia developing nervous twitches right about now.

It seems that those in Taiwan who are wary of China are right to be so - and there are many.

A survey, conducted in Taiwan in July 2009, showed that 82 percent consider the ROC and the PRC to be two separate countries developing individually, directly contradicting Beijings claims that the island is simply a rogue province.

Another poll from December 2009 showed that 62 percent of the respondents considered themselves as Taiwanese only, compared to 8 percent who considered themselves to be Chinese.

But as the UK too sells it's own soul for a slice of China's economic pie - David Cameron himself carefully stepping over the oppressed and abused to get to Beijing - it seems that the morals and values of a country can be conveniently swept away for a while - a worthwhile sacrifice during these hard times.

Or not.

As Taiwan creeps closer to the smiling dragon, it needs to remember; it has a lot more to lose than we do.

On the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11849878

Cambodia: tinged with tragedy

After the death of 350 people in Cambodia earlier this week in a bloody stampede, the world watched as a national day of mourning was declared. Now that it's behind us, history has shown time and time again that this forgotten little country in South East Asia is likely to once more vanish without a trace.

A handful of years ago, Cambodia enjoyed the most attention it had received since the Vietnam war spilled across it's borders when Angelina Jolie took a liking to the place and adopted her first child there. She was later honoured with Cambodian citizenship and yet now, aside from the occasional border scuffle with Thailand or the odd report of Khmer Rouge leaders being finally put on trial, the steamy tropical calm which hangs throughout Cambodia remains sadly unknown to the world.

The country itself is a gorgeous place, welcoming and kind - but tinged with sadness still. Indeed many of the people who ply their trades up and down the streets of Phnom Penh will speak of their memories of the Khmer Rouge - their fists curling up as they wrinkle their brows and relay brief flashes of the horrors from the past.

The atrocities committed during the 1970s which left an estimated 1.7 million people dead, now seem unthinkable.

In terms of the number of people killed as a proportion of the population (estimated at 7.1 million people) it was the most lethal regime of the 20th century

The Khmer Rouge government arrested, tortured and eventually executed anyone suspected of being Christian, Muslim, Buddhist, an intellectual (meaning almost everyone with an education, or even people wearing glasses) and even deemed family ties to be destructive - separating mothers from their children and executing anyone who displayed affection towards members of their own family.

In 2008 I spoke to a security guard working at the capital's gorgeous Royal Palace - currently the residence of King Norodom Sihamoni. He told me he had worked there for decades: "all through the hell of the Pol Pot Regime.

"I've seen this place stay the same and change. Both together" he said. When asked to elaborate he let his arms hang losely by his side: "Terrible" he breathed: "Never again."

Unlike other countries in Asia, these days the Cambodians seem far less likely to cheat foreigners out of their money. A reasonable price for everything can usually be agreed and, more surprisingly, kept to. They live their lives quietly, but always with a genuine smile to hand.

Prime Minister Hun Sen this week described the recent stampede tragedy as the country's worst since the Khmer Rouge era, and I can't help but wonder why the world is happy to allow Cambodia to languish in poverty, unable to pull itself up and deprived of the help it so truly deserves.

If any country has suffered enough, this is it. And it breaks my heart.



On the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11832900

dangerous times...

"Until they become conscious they will never rebel, and until after they have rebelled they cannot become conscious."

Whether George Orwell quite knew the accuracy of his words, or understood how long they would remain relevant is anyone's guess, but the truth of his most perceptive quote continues to leap out at me from virtually every situation and every news story taking place around the world.

David Cameron's recent, unprecedented delegation to China and the subsequent media attention given to artist and dissident Ai Wei Wei underlined the ongoing issue of human rights and freedom of speech there, but what many forget is that the essence of Orwell's words leak from every pore of the tragic situation in North Korea. The starving millions there unknowingly provide a twisted justification for Kim Jong Il to launch an unprovoked artillery attack on civilians in the South.

A friend in South Korea told me today that she feels 'the west' worries about the recent shelling of those innocent civilians more than the people of S. Korea themselves do - a troubling acceptance due to the flare-ups along the DMZ which have become an unfortunately regular occurrence. The resulting loss of life along the worlds most heavily fortified border more expected these days than ever before..

The South Korean reaction to the sinking of the Cheonan - one of quiet fury - would have been rather difficult for many in the UK to understand - such a vicious and sneaky act which resulted only in condemnation from the respectable west, and infuriatingly empty words from the Chinese.

But at what point do we draw a line under the situation and declare that enough is enough? The toddlers 'running' the North continue to throw stones at their neighbours in an desperate cry for attention - and we limit ourselves by choosing to either reward them, or ignore them - neither of which resolves the issue justly.

How many more must North Korea kill before the international community lives up to their responsibility and actually punishes them for their intolerable and 'belligerent' behaviour?

Kim Jong Il's endless propaganda ensures the people of the North remain unconscious, yet how much provocation must the South endure before they themselves lose their temper?

Unfortunately, with Seoul being within artillery distance of the North itself, the quiet anger of people in the South seems unlikely to increase in volume any time in the near future...

On the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11833217